[Salon] Why DeepSeek caught so many in the West by surprise

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3296823/why-deepseek-caught-so-many-west-surprise?d=1c13e062-091c-49fa-8ddc-076d78d97093

Opinion | Why DeepSeek caught so many in the West by surprise

Anxiety around DeepSeek reflects just how much confirmation bias about China has prevented many in the West from understanding the country

Reading Time:3 minutes

Bert George

2 Feb 2025

To those of us who follow Western media, the typical reporting about China tends to centre around its label as a competitor and rival, as opposed to a partner.

Spy stories surrounding China dominate headlines, and are picked up and shared widely. Western expats in Hong Kong such as myself then get asked about these stories and are expected to provide answers that support the apocalyptic reporting on China.

There is little room for nuance in such talk, and people on the other end often do not want to hear about any achievements or progress in China; nor is there any interest in truly understanding China’s complex political, economic, social, technological and legal ecosystem.

Granted, one should be careful not to generalise too broadly here but it is clear that a mental image has been formed in the West of China and any information challenging that image gets hastily blocked or even sparks disbelief and anxiety.

A potent example is the general lack of reporting on the recent visa relaxation arrangements in China for a host of countries. Even though it is the first time in my lifetime that travel to China from my country has become so easy, these visa arrangements were scarcely or only superficially reported in much of the Western media.

A dangerous consensus on China seems to be shaping in much of the West, and certainly the Western media. Linked to this image is a large-scale confirmation bias that may result in cognitive dissonance. Both concepts are often used in behavioural economics to understand people’s thinking and decision-making.

Tourists from Italy pose for a group photo after practising tai chi at the Tiantan Park (Temple of Heaven) in Beijing on July 9. China relaxation of its visa policies has fuelled an increase in international arrivals. Photo: Xinhua

Confirmation bias means you only take in information that supports your current mental image about something. There is plenty of such information in relation to China, again often unilaterally focused on what is going wrong in the country.

Cognitive dissonance relates to a state of anxiety that may pop up when information somehow does slip through indicating that maybe your mental image was not correct. We are seeing large-scale cognitive dissonance manifest in the West as a result of the recent launch of DeepSeek – China’s response to ChatGPT and related generative artificial intelligence (AI).

It seems the West and Western media were completely caught by surprise upon the launch of DeepSeek. It even sparked a reaction from the highest level of government, including US President Donald Trump. It was headline news on seemingly every Western media outlet I follow, including international and local ones.

The general reaction seems to be one of surprise. Moreover, the overall message clearly indicates how this launch was unexpected and proves to be a game changer that will have an impact on US and Western dominance in AI.

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DeepSeek also seems to disrupt pre-existing beliefs about the amount of resources required for further AI innovations, which sparked strong reactions on the stock market, seemingly deflating much of the value of contemporary Western tech companies. Such a strong reaction is a textbook example of cognitive dissonance; the shock, disbelief and discomfort are showing.

For anyone who tries to get a deeper, nuanced understanding of China, though, this would have been much less of a surprise. Clearly, China has created an ecosystem that allows these innovations to emerge and thrive, whether one likes it or not. At all levels, China’s policymakers understand the importance of promoting and expanding that ecosystem for more success in the future.

There are going to be many more cognitive dissonance moments in the West if it continues its one-sided, unbalanced reporting on China. There are, of course, many issues regarding China, and no one should shy away from reporting on them.

However, there are also fascinating achievements occurring on a daily basis. The ingenuity of the Chinese people as well as their drive to excel and advance is simply impressive. China’s investment in education and technology, clear future-oriented strategies to reach goals and its continued efforts to open up, reform and modernise should be studied and understood.

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More actual China experts are needed, who understand the country, speak the language and visit it frequently. They can act as a bridge between East and West. They are not steered by political motivations to simply confirm pre-existing biases. Neither should they present over-idealised images of China that do not fit the country’s complex reality.

There will be more moments similar to the launch of DeepSeek, and if they continue to surprise the West, the potential consequences can be quite severe. In words attributed to Sun Tzu, the master strategist, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

We need more engagement, with a clear understanding of each party’s interest and where they align or differ. How do we avoid biases and blind spots in such engagement? Beginning to acknowledge they exist is a starting point. It is time that we in the West take stock of our cognitive biases and blind spots surrounding China, and invest in knowledge-building about the country.

I make this statement especially as a European in the current context of Anglo-European relations. Europe cannot afford biased decision-making regarding any of its potential collaborators, competitors or rivals, or it is at risk of becoming increasingly marginalised in the current geopolitical chess game between super states.

Bert George

Bert George (BSc, MSc, PhD) is an applied economist and full professor in the Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong. He is an expert in strategic